Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. After breaking a step slowly, the 3-year-old took control early on, started to draw clear on the turn and then galloped away from his rivals without ever being asked by jockey Flavien Prat. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. Danzing Candy ran steadily improving figures over his first four races (72-89-92-100) before falling apart in the Santa Anita Derby - when he set a wicked pace over a sloppy track and faded to . font-size: 12px; If you are a casual sports fan getting ready to check out the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, you are going to hear plenty of talk about Beyer Speed Figures. Several runners had higher TimeformUS figures for Saturday's races, including Cavalry Charge with a 122 in winning the Fair Grounds Stakes (G3). . May 11:Strobe quick early, late in sparkling debut victory, May 25:Pricey Nabokov pays off with 91 Beyer, June 2:Forte shouldimprove with distance, Beyer Slideshow featuring last weekends stakes winners from around the country with Beyer Speed Figures, sire/breeder information and more. That is possible, Sadler said. Call 7032375030 for more information. I'm going to take it one step at a time. The figures are generally less reliable in turf races, which often have a slow early pace resulting in slow final times that do not reflect the horse's true speed. Epicenter, with Joel Rosario aboard, wins the $1 million Louisiana Derby horse race at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 26, 2022. The figure may however be adjusted if the raw numbers are unusual based on the field's previous performances. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). (Coady Photography), A Closer Look at 2022 Breeders Cup Classic Hopeful Olympiad, Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. 60 Broad St. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . His victory put him at the top of the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 64 points. [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. Each day's races are compared to their pars, with the variant representing the average deviation, and then added to the raw speed rating to yield the par-time based figure. Six of the last eight horses to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby have come from California. The Breeders Cup Classic is the marquee race of the two-day Breeders Cup World Championships to be held at Keeneland for the third time overall on Nov. 4-5, 2022, with 14Breeders Cup races offering $28million in purse money and awards. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). For example, a horse who earns three consecutive figures of 102, and defeats a horse with three consecutive figures of 92, would indicate a projected figure of 102 for that race is accurate. GET OUR NEWSLETTER. The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall, and just last weekend we witnessed several breakout performances. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. There's nothing written in stone, but I am mindful of the fact that I need to be careful.. Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. This year, Taiba,Messier, and Epicenterboth have topped that mark. To me, he's a gift.. Shancelot was trained by Jorge Navarro, whose years of doping horses under his care have been well documented. Messier posted his on Feb. 6, 2022 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), a 1 1/16 mile run which Messier won. Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. At 1 3/16 miles, its the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter. I've got a good ownership group. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. The end result also included a 98 Beyer, which matches the best speed figure run so far by Zandon, the morning-line Derby favorite. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Un Ojo Ethereal Road and Happy Jack have the lowest career-best BSFs. }. Happy Jack. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! (Only Epicenter, Messier . Considering that he is by Tapit and, therefore, should do his best running at longer distances and that Sadler-trained horses usually don't reach their peak until turning four, or even five, could Flightline actually get better? Those who live and die by the speed figures may give Early Voting a chance to upset Epicenter andSkippylongstockinga shot to hit the board, but neither runner has any previous figure that is strong enough to lean on. The bottom of the crop is equivalent in both years, with the lowest top-BSF at 83. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on . The 148th running of horse racing's Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 7, 2022, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. I believe the number for the Wood was inflated after it was compared to the Gazelle Stakes (G3) at the same distance on the same card. Beyer's subsequent books, "My $50,000 Year at the Races" (1978), "The Winning Horseplayer" (1983), and "Beyer on Speed" (1993) continued to raise racing fans' awareness of the importance of speed figures. Beyer Speed Figures have become an industry standard for the comparison of one horse's performance to another. So some of the traditional rules may not apply. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. The lists provide daily updates of the top Equibase Speed Figures earned in stakes races in support of the Eclipse Awards: 2-Year-Old Male 2-Year-Old Female 3-Year-Old Male. border: 1px solid #CCC; While Flightline is expected to have a more complete campaign next year than he did this year, don't expect him to run seven or eight times. Bet On Flightline (+375) at BetOnline 2022 Preakness: Beyer Speed Figures For Every Horse. Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. Mo Donegal ran a non-threateningfifth in the Kentucky Derby after his Wood victory. Jerardi is also part of the Beyer speed figure team, a system that was designed by legendary Washington Post racing columnist Andy Beyer. With a talented, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you NEED to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks of your own. The top-end speed runs deeper in this field, as well. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Regularly updated current leaders in Beyer Figures, by division, Stormy Liberal's 119 Beyer one for the books, Context matters in determining Beyers for Personal Ensign Stakes, Beyer analysis supports Justify as Derby favorite, Slight edge to American Pharoah over Justify on speed figures, Purchase Beyer on Demand & Lifetime Beyer Speed Figures Click here >>, Download free sample Lifetime Beyer Speed Figures. Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Flightline was given a 118 Beyer figure for his sensational performance in Sunday's GI Runhappy Malibu S. at Santa Anita, which is the top figure assigned to any horse this year. He has run consecutive 101 numbers, which puts him behind four other Preakness probables. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. In the only . None of the entrants in 2010's field has yet earned a number higher than 101. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . Follow TheLines on Twitter for complete 2022 Kentucky Derby coverage. Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. This story was posted in Shared News and tagged Beyer Speed Figures, Flightline, Horse Racing, John Sadler, Runhappy Malibu S., Santa Anita, Terry Finley. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts. A bay son of Not This Time, Epicenter has seen his Beyer Speed Figures go up in every race of his career, peaking with a 102 in the Louisiana Derby. 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline ( Tapit) is really, really, fast . For example, Messier posted a 98 Beyer in his most recent race but also has a 103 on his resume, indicating a consistent high-level performer. After a weekend of three extremely telling Kentucky Derby prep races, and 50-point races coming quickly, there's no better time to take a look at how the crop has performed figures-wise to this point. Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Reach for the superlatives: Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat after a truly astonishing performance in the Pacific Classic. Taiba also notched a 102 in winning the Santa Anita Derby April . Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race. According to the Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, the 118 is the highest number given to any horse since Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) got a 121 when winning the 2019 GII Amsterdam S. at Saratoga. Kentucky Derby 2022: How do the speed figures stack up. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. 2022 Preakness Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers betting strategy for second leg of Triple Crown One week after hitting the Pick 4 at Belmont Park for $1,851, Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir just revealed his picks and bets for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. His strong and consistent 3-year-old form, combined with a lack of depth among the prospective contenders, makes this logical. [15][16], Beyer speculated that had his figures existed in 1973, Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Video Poker Guide: Play the Best Online Video Poker Games, Tacitus 2019 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile, 2022 Belmont Stakes Odds: We The People Overtakes Mo Donegal On The Oddsboard, 2022 Breeders Cup Predictions: Expert Picks And Best Bets. Owned by WinStar . By his theory, a horse earning an 85 Beyer at Golden Gate Fields going seven furlongs and a horse earning an 85 Beyer at nine furlongs at Santa Anita basically have the same ability. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. Indy, earned her lone win at 1 1/16 miles and produced Hungry Island and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners around two turns. His dam (mother), Tokyo Time, by Medaglia dOro, was a winner at 1 1/8 miles and also Grade 2-placed at that distance. We knew Olympiad was fast he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a mile in :12.53, according to Equibase, was especially impressive. Also note that this year's Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) came back the strongest of the prep races, based on Brisnet Speed Ratings. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Several other companies produce and sell power ratings, but most do not reveal their precise methodology. The track variant considers both the historical average time at the racetrack for the distance in question, called the "par time", and the average speed for the day in particular. He's done a super job and he's made all the right moves. The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. You can throw out superlative after superlative. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Stat to remember: Since the Beyer Speed Figures were introduced in . Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. Low 43F. Consistency and experience show that Epicenter is a worthy favorite who will be tough to beat. Making just his third lifetime start after very impressive wins in a Santa Anita maiden and a Del Mar allowance, Flightline was tested for class in the Malibu, and couldn't have passed any more easily. Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. In Picking Winners, Beyer claimed a breakthrough when a study of claiming races at Calder Race Course showed Beyer that 1:13 for six furlongs was equally fast to 1:26.1 at seven; from there, Kovitz's math was used to generate perfectly accurate parallel-time and beaten-lengths charts, which Beyer then used to make par times for classes, against which each race is measured to determine if the track is faster or slower than normal. Messier notched his 103 in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 6. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. In short, there is much reason for optimism as it pertains to Olympiad being effective at 1 miles in the Longines Classic Nov. 5 at Keeneland. When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. He's a gift. As he grew up in Erie, Pa., attended Harvard College, and wrote a horse-racing column for the Washington Post, Andrew Beyers great passions were handicapping and betting. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. Receive daily headlines, breaking news alerts, promotions, and much . Early Voting's previous high was only a 91. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. [23], As Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse's final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. The list since 1987 No one else has topped 96. Epicenter (+400) ran his own 102 BSF race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Last year, he was on fire. . Flightline, now a 4-year-old, posted an impressive Beyer speed figure of 126 in the Pacific Classic, and continued a five-race string of excellence of 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126 leading into . Make sure you keep an eye out in the coming weeks for any changes to the Kentucky Derby field. USA: After drawing comparisons with the legendary Secretariat for his extraordinary 19-length romp in Saturday's Pacific Classic at Del Mar, Flightline has been awarded a Beyer speed figure of 126 - the second-highest in 31 years. 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. Ran third in the Preakness, beaten 3 1/2 lengths by Early Voting, tabbed with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure at 10-1 . Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. Preakness 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. The most exciting two minutes in sports doubles as a betting bonanza as well. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. In 1992, Beyer began making turf figures, which were made more accurate by his adjustment of the beaten-lengths chart, in which he uses the six-and-a-half furlong beaten-lengths chart for all races at that distance or longer, to reflect the nature of turf racing, where horses jockey for position most of the way, and then sprint home with almost all of their energy in reserve, making the competitive part of the race more akin to a sprint than to the race's actual distance. It was one point better than the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Life Is Good earned for winning the $3 million Pegasus World Cup in January to rate as the highest figure at more than a mile this year Charge It earned a 111 for winning the Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 2. 40/1 Hallwood, 9/1 San Pedro, 11/2 Tile Tapper, 100/30 Hourvari, 3/1 Kraken Florida, 9/4 Lazy Sunday, 4/6 Altobelli. John doesn't need any help from us. Your TDN download has begun. Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 8, 2022 - Last Updated on June 9, 2022. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back, Register for DFS, receive a free NBA Entry. As any horses drop out and new horses are elevated into the field, we can adjust the chart accordingly. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! It's an exciting time. Since making their published debut in 1992, Beyer Speed Figures have become the industry standard for evaluating Thoroughbred performance. This Saturday will see the 154th running of New York's horse racing classic, and Belmont Stakes odds have opened for betting. A system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America, Learn how and when to remove this template message, "Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method", "Flightline stunning as he runs away with Pacific Classic", "Overacheiver [sic] Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "Paulick Report Forum brought to you by Breeders' Cup: Talking Speed Figures with Beyer", "Best Bets: A handicapping history of the Breeders' Cup, Part 5 [Breeders' Cup]", "Commentator stands alone in Beyer history", "With a Combination of Speed and Class, War Pass Is Reminiscent of Seattle Slew", "Jerardi: Top Beyer Figures a thing of the past", "Frosted ran off the screen and to the top of the Beyer scale", "Overacheiver Cigar Had a Mark of Consistency", "American Pharoah's 120 erases any doubts", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Beyer_Speed_Figure&oldid=1115194621, Short description is different from Wikidata, Articles with unsourced statements from March 2015, Articles needing additional references from March 2015, All articles needing additional references, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. We expect next year to go a lot different than this year because when you do right by a horse, you build a better product going forward. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. Red Bank, NJ 07701, p: (732) 747-8060 Considering how poorly the Gazelle entrants ran in the Kentucky Oaks, it seems that the Gazelle was painfully weak this year, making the Wood look better than it really was. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. f: (732) 747-8955. Both represent significant jumps - and another notable improvement, which would be necessary to compete against elite 3-year-olds, is a big ask from a 3-year-old. He said Monday that he had not picked out a next start for the colt and was not in any hurry to do so. 0:49. With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. Prior to the Malibu, Flightline and Baby Yoda (Prospective) were tied for the best number on the year, a 114. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. Racing Rsum: After winning two of five starts in his first two seasons of racing with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap Presented by NYRA Bets in his stakes debut, Olympiad has emerged in 2022 as a rising star for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. On 2016s Derby trail, the top number was the 103 earned by Exaggerator in his victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. His 120 was the highest number recorded since Quality Road earned a 121 in 2011. Unlike many of his rivals, he still has room to catch up on speed figures. In Europe, Timeform has a similar rating scale that yields a number, but with a different value. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . Sometimes, variants are split during the day if the surface changes drastically enough. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. 97. Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . He was nearly in a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37. Such situations can often arise in turf races when an extremely slow pace prevents horses from running a final time of which they would normally be capable.In cases where figures are questionable, races are reviewed after horses in the field run again. Brisnet speed ratings are courtesy ofBrisnet. Messier (7-1), Zandon (8-1), and Mo Donegal (8-1) are other top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders according to oddsmakers. Dale Romans gave me some good advice, he said. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. Though by no means the end all and be all of picking winners, speed figures provide a good gauge of the overall talent level of horses in a race. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races.
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